RACE

1 North Carolina

Candidate

Roy Cooper

MOVE

even

WHAT CHANGED

A pro-Whatley super PAC pulled $6.5 million in October reservations and Senate Leadership Fund trimmed its broadcast buy, though the NRSC denies it is pulling back

2 Alaska

Mary Peltola

↑1

Sen. Sullivan shares the ranked-choice ballot with another Dan Sullivan, and polling found about a third of likely primary voters could not tell the two apart

Troy Jackson

↓1

ProPublica reported a stalled FBI inquiry into whether Sen. Collins traded donations for contracts, and outside groups have spent $17 million in Maine since Sept. 1, about 80 percent of everything spent on the race all cycle

4 Ohio

Sherrod Brown

even

Only $1.8 million in outside money has gone to promoting Brown, against $18.8 million behind Husted. What keeps the spending even is the $30.6 million groups have spent attacking Husted.

5 Iowa

Josh Turek

↑1

Turek raised $13.9 million in the third quarter to Hinson’s $3.3 million, which moves him past her for the cycle after he trailed at midyear. Outside groups have spent $15.6 million attacking Hinson on top of that.

RACE

IA-01

NEW RATING

Toss Up

MOVE

↑D

WHAT CHANGED

Outside groups filed $2.1 million against Rep. Miller-Meeks in one week, the most spent here this cycle

PA-07

D Advantage

↑D

Trump carried this seat by three, but Democrats have led every public poll since the primary

ME-02

R Advantage

↑D

Democrat Jared Golden is retiring and unpopular former GOP Gov. Paul LePage is running for an open seat Trump won by nine

AR-02

Expected R

↑D

French Hill's margin fell from 24.8 points in 2022 to 17.9 in 2024, and it will likely be closer again this cycle